One of the clear objectives for people who want to see far reaching progressive change is to work towards the best possible government from the next election.
It is a given that Fianna Fail won’t form part of that government. Nobody would touch them. Even if the figures added up and it was technically possible to form a government between Fianna Fail and Labour, it was long ago ruled out by Labour. That, as it turned out, was a smart move for them to make at time. Support rose for the party, as people drew the conclusion that principle lay behind the decision. It was also very astute. Labour saw that there was a sizable and expanding progressive electorate out there. The decision to create clear distance between them and Fianna Fail was calculated to increase their political strength.
The bookies favourite is for a coalition between Fine Gael and Labour. Labour are going along with this perception. In the immediate aftermath of the fallout from the collapse in the banking system and the run up to the last budget, the public mood has been swayed towards looking for the quickest and most effective way of consigning the current government to history. Therefore, there has been a boost to both parties poll ratings. The boost to Labours ratings can be explained in two ways. In the first instance, they have been presented as the most obvious partner to Fine Gael. They have been in government together before and in does not stretch the imagination to put them in a partnership again.
The other factor is that one connected to Labour’s decision to rule out Fianna Fail and to take off the gloves in attacking the main governing party inside at outside Leinster House.
The rise in the Fine Gael vote I think also falls into two main areas. As the largest opposition party, they are seen as the most likely to replace Fianna Fail and in simple terms, they are the quickest and easiest way to punish the incumbents. There are also a safe home for conservative minded voters and those who want to maintain the political and economic system pretty much as it is. If Fianna Fail are removed together with all of the negative baggage they carry, then a new administration with a different cast of characters can take over without having to change the overall way in which the economy is run.
The ideology and policy platform of Fine Gael is indistinguishable in any meaningful way from Fianna Fail. They both believe in deregulated and privatised provision of public services. They both want to roll back the state. They are both conservative parties. That needs saying and repeating at every opportunity.
There are a group of people who I believe are thinking about their politics. People have been exposed to a one-size fits all ‘choice’ between two conservative parties and a largely compliant media who have dismissed any variation in policy positions or any fresh thinking that may challenge what had become economic orthodoxy. The collapse in the banking system and the light that this has shone on the weaknesses of this capitalist open economy has stirred enough debate to at least open minds towards alternatives.
That these people may feel that their best option would be to vote for Fine Gael in order to sufficiently change the order, has to be a major concern to all who want to see real progressive change. It also poses a challenge.
There are two elements to that challenge. The first is to convince this group that a vote for Fine Gael would not change anything. Fine Gael need to be challenged on their policy platform and on their ‘vision’. What do they want to see in 5 or 10 years time. They are open to attack on there plans for the public sector and the increased role for the private sector.
The other way that people could be discouraged from voting for Fine Gael is to ensure that the party that would have to support them in any new government, Labour, moved away from that position.
That is an enormous challenge. All current indications are that the leadership of the Labour party are gearing up for government with Fine Gael. It’s the easiest option for them. There are also conservative elements within the Labour party who would feel comfortable with this type of coalition. However, there are many within the Labour party and the wider Labour and Trade Union Movement who can see the opportunity for much wider and more radical change in the current climate. They can see that this is one of those moments in history when real change can be effected. They too can see that the political and social landscape can be radically changed and that we are on the verge of being able to consign the neo-liberal domination of the past few decades to history.
The Labour party have an opportunity to contribute to the atmosphere of change. They can join with others to put a different type of vision before the people. One that shifts the political paradigm. In doing so, they would be playing a significant part in influencing that group of electors who mistakenly believe that Fine Gael can be a lead actor in creating a better society.
Conservative people will stay with Fine Gael and whatever remains of Fianna Fail. Progressive forces can then work together to forge ahead with putting a people-centred vision before the electorate.
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